What is the Monte Carlo Method in Forex?

Monte Carlo Simulation, also known as the Monte Carlo Method, is a computer simulation technique used to estimate the possible outcomes and in the case of a trader, estimate a strategy's viability.

The goal of our Monte Carlo tool is to help illustrate and predict the variability of your trading returns with confidence. The simulation is based upon your trading strategy metrics like:

Initial balance

Risk percent of balance per 1 trade

Ratio Take profit/Stop loss

Win %

Break even %

Average trades per month

Total number of months that strategy will trade

* This is an educational tool and results should not be construed as investment advice.

Standard (Floor)

The floor Pivot Points, also known as Classical Pivots and are the most basic and popular type of pivots used in Forex. These floor Pivots are price-based support and resistance levels and are calculated using a prior period's high, low, and close prices.

Formula

Pivot Point = [High (previous day) + Low (previous day) + Close (previous day)] / 3 R1 = (2 x Pivot Point) - Low (previous day) S1 = (2 x Pivot Point) - High (previous day) R2 = Pivot Point + (R1 - S1) S2 = Pivot Point - (R1 - S1) R3 = Pivot Point + (R2 - S2) S3 = Pivot Point - (R2 - S2)

Woodie

Woodie's Pivot Points are a unique type of Pivot Points made up of multiple key levels and calculated from past price points, in order to frame trades in a simplistic manner.

They vary from the floor pivots in a way they are calculated as they give more weight to the Close price of the previous period.

Formula

Pivot Point for Current Day = [High(previous day) + Low(previous day) + Open (previous day) x 2] / 4 R1 = 2 x Pivot Point - Low (previous day) S1 = 2 x Pivot Point - High (previous day) R2 = Pivot Point + High (previous day) - Low (previous day) S2 = Pivot Point - High (previous day) + Low (previous day) R3 = High (previous day) + 2 x [Pivot Point - Low (previous day)] S3 = Low (previous day) - 2 x [High (previous day) - Pivot Point] R4 = R3 + High (previous day) - Low (previous day) S4 = S3 - High (previous day) + Low (previous day) S3 = Pivot Point - (R2 - S2)

Camarilla

Camarilla Pivot Points is a versatile pivot point indicator that comprises eight profitable levels which resemble support and resistance values for a current trend. These support points serve as a great indicator and are super popular as they help traders to set the right stop loss and profit target orders.

Formula

Central Pivot Point = [High(previous day) + Low(previous day) + Close(previous day)]/3 R1 = Close (previous day) + [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/12 S1 = Close (previous day) - [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/12 R2 = Close (previous day) + [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/6 S2 = Close (previous day) - [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/6 R3 = Close (previous day) + [(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/4 S3 = Close (previous day) - [(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/4 R4 = Close (previous day) + [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/2 S4 = Close (previous day) - [High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.1/2

Tom DeMark's

Another popular method of calculating pivot points to forecast the future of the trend is Tom DeMark's Pivot Points, which are not pivot points exactly but are the predicted lows and highs of the period.

Formula

If Close < Open: X = H + 2 x L + C If Close > Open: X = 2 x H + L + C If Close = Open: X = H + L + 2 x C R1 = X / 2 - L S1 = X / 2 - H

Fibonacci

Fibonacci Pivot Points work as one of the most popular types of forex indicators used to find support and resistance. It works by calculating the pivot points starting with a base one and using the Fibonacci series of numbers. The most popular levels monitored by the traders are the 38.2% and the 61.8% retracement levels.

Formula

Pivot Point for Current Day = [High (previous day) + Low (previous day) + Close (previous day)] / 3 Resistance 1 = Pivot Point + ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 0.382) Support 1 = Pivot Point - ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 0.382) Resistance 2 = Pivot Point + ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 0.618) Support 2 = Pivot Point - ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 0.618) Resistance 3 = Pivot Point + ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.000) Support 3 = Pivot Point - ([(High (previous day) - Low (previous day)] x 1.000)